With the calendar turning to 2023, it’s time to start thinking about WNBA free agency. Later this month, players and teams can start negotiating contracts, which can be officially signed starting February 1.
Although this year’s free agent category isn’t as heavy as last year’s, which included the two most recent MVPs (the MVP of the game) (Jonquil Jones And Aja Wilson), it is a star-studded group with six members from WNBA25 roster One of the best 25 players in the history of the league.
In particular, forward Brianna Stewart He stands out as a former MVP in his prime who would likely be an unrestricted free agent for the second year in a row. With teammate Sue Bird retiring, Stewart could leave Seattle Storm This time around?
As expected, Stewart leads my 2023 prediction for wins over replacement player (WARP), my measure of player value based on a player’s performance over the past three seasons and age.
Who rounds up the top 15 WNBA players available in free agency this offseason? lets take alook.
(Note: Players are unrestricted free agents unless otherwise noted. Free Agent Rankings Courtesy HerHoopStats.com.)
1. Brenna Stewart
Seattle Storm
straight ahead
Age as of February 1: 28
EXPECTED WARP: 5.7
After meeting with New York Liberty In his last season before returning to the Storm on a one-year deal, Stewart returns to free agency. Because the Storm used the primary designation on a teammate Jewell Lloyd They re-signed her to a two-year deal off last season, and they don’t have it available to use it on Stewart as long as Loyd remains on the roster. So Stewart is likely untied after a season in which she led the WNBA in scoring for the first time at 21.8 PPG and finished runner-up in MVP voting for the second time in three years.
Connecticut Sun
center
Age as of February 1: 27
EXPECTED WARP: 3.5
A two-time All-Star, Jones does not yet have the resume of some of the more experienced free agents in the class. Still, at 27, she’s in the midst of her reign, and could emerge in a bigger role after winning MVP honors last season, coming off the bench behind Connecticut stars Jonquil Jones and Alyssa Thomas. Pending deal, the Sun cannot currently offer Jones the maximum regular salary that other teams might offer. Analysis by Richard Cohen for HerHoopStats.
Chicago Sky
forward / middle
Age as of February 1: 36
EXPECTED WARP: 3.1
Parker’s two seasons back home in Chicago resulted in the franchise’s first title in 2021 and the best league record in the 2022 regular season, along with an appearance in the Commissioner’s Cup Final. So even as Parker prepares for her 16th season in the WNBA, she’s still a winning streak. Parker’s diverse skill set translated well into a smaller role in which she was no longer a top scorer in attack but rather a playmaking center within a balanced attack.
Chicago Sky
Protect
Age as of February 1: 33
EXPECTED WARP: 3.0
With Parker and a lighter minute load, Vandersloot saw her five-season streak of leading the WNBA in assists per game come to an end. However, on a per-minute basis, Vandersloot was still leading the league, and averaged 8.0 APG in the four games that Parker missed. Surprisingly, Vandersloot has embraced scoring more at the age of 33, posting 15.9 points per 36 minutes.
Phoenix Mercury
center
Age as of February 1: 32
EXPECTED WARP: 3.0
There is no precedent for predicting how Griner might play out after spending nearly 10 months detained in Russia. It’s also a secondary concern compared to the fact that Griner is free and has indicated that she plans to return to Mercury in 2023 as an unrestricted free agent.
Dallas Suites
center
Age as of February 1: 26
specific
EXPECTED WARP: 2.9
for three seasons with Indiana fever And in her first half season with the Wings, McCown showed flashes of dominance in the paint that never translated into consistent elite play. It came in the second half of 2022, when McEwan averaged 17.7 PPG on 61% shooting and 10.5 RPG after the All-Star break as Dallas went 7-4 despite playing with no Ariki Ogunpoel to stretch for a long time. It will be interesting to see if McCowan pulls off an offer sheet from another team as a restricted free agent in a deep market in the posts.
Chicago Sky
straight ahead
Age as of February 1: 29
EXPECTED WARP: 2.8
After sitting out the 2021 campaign due to the Tokyo Olympics, Meissmann is back with the same kind of good contributions she has with Sophia Washington, making a second All-Star appearance and shooting 57% from the field. Since Meesseman won’t turn 30 until the week before opening night, she should still have several seasons of top-level performance left.
Seattle Storm
forward center
Age as of February 1: 34
EXPECTED WARP: 2.2
Because of Charles’ elite play in 2021, when she led the WNBA in scoring with 23.4 PPG for the Mystics and earned All-WNBA Second Team honors, she expects to make a comeback after a 2022 campaign that featured the Mercury’s midseason exit. Charles accepted a smaller role with the Storm, initially coming off the bench for the first time in her career, and helping Seattle to replace an injured center Mercedes Russell.
Los Angeles Sparks
straight ahead
Age as of February 1: 32
EXPECTED WARP: 2.2
Ogowomike’s humble drop was the most surprising of this year’s group. She’s posted at least a 2.5 WARP for each of the past three campaigns, including 4.3 last season when she earned All-WNBA Second Team honors for the first time since 2019. With Ogwumike in her 30s, some downturn is to be expected, but at least Likely more gradually than this projection would suggest.
Seattle Storm
forward center
Age as of February 1: 23
booked up
EXPECTED WARP: 2.1
A full-time starter for the first time to start 2022, Magbegor averaged a league-leading 11.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG and a league-leading 2.3 BPG in the role before the All-Star break, looking very much like an emerging star at 22. Magbegor hasn’t been nearly as effective in A backup role behind Charles after the break, which saw his shooting percentage drop from 56% to 51% and productivity drop on a per-minute basis. This is likely to be just a bump in the road as Magbegor’s future remains bright. Since Magbegor did not come to the WNBA immediately after being drafted in 2019, she can only negotiate with the Storm as a booked free agent.
New York Liberty
center
Age as of February 1: 23
booked up
EXPECTED WARP: 1.9
The tallest player in the WNBA at 6-foot-10, Han translated that size into huge productivity in her second WNBA campaign at age 22. Per 36 minutes, Han averaged 18.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. Like Magbegor, Han doesn’t have the four years of service needed to become a restricted free agent — she’s only played two years — and will only be able to negotiate with Liberty.
Dallas Suites
Protect
Age as of February 1: 26
specific
EXPECTED WARP: 1.9
By hitting 32 home runs last season, Mabry has established herself as a high-quality contributor in the role. His 13.6 PPG and 3.7 APG in 2022 were both career highs. At 26, Mabry was just shining. Because ball handlers are rare in free agency, Mabrey’s market can be strong as we saw in HerHoopStats makes fun of the season.
Chicago Sky
forward / middle
Age as of February 1: 27
EXPECTED WARP: 1.8
As part of a deep Chicago front yard, Stevens has averaged over 22 minutes per game only once in her career, as a full-time starter in 2020 before Parker joined the Sky. Per 36 minutes, Stevens averaged a career-high 17.4 points last season, suggesting she could thrive in a bigger role during the peak of her career.
Phoenix Mercury
Protect
Age as of February 1: 40
EXPECTED WARP: 1.7
Taurasi told a local TV station in November that she plans to return for the 19th season of the WNBA, when she will turn 41. Taurasi has been unable to stay on the field consistently in the later stages of her career, and her defense has diminished impact, but she remains one of the best scorers in the league.
Sophia Washington
straight ahead
Age as of February 1: 35
EXPECTED WARP: 1.6
After returning from a Lisfranc injury that kept her out of the 2021 WNBA campaign, Clarke fell to 30% after the arc after shooting 38% in nine seasons in Seattle but made up for it by making 63% of her two-point attempts. An accomplished player, Clark was a factor in the Mystics leading the league in defensive ratings.