VCU vs. Dayton Odds, stills

VCU vs. Dayton Odds

While nearly everyone else in the conference arenas is out on Saturday, Dayton and the VCU get their start on Friday night. The Flyers host VCU and are looking to remain undefeated in the conference as they are 4-0 and also riding a seven-game winning streak.

Meanwhile, the Rams have won seven of their past eight and are 3-1 in conference, their only loss on the road to Duquesne, a 12-beat Dayton team. Can the Flyers remain undefeated at home? Or will the Rams be the first to knock them out? Let’s dive into match and bet prediction.

The Rams’ offense averages 71.1 points per game and holds opponents to just 64.9 points per contest. Jamir Watkins was a leader at both ends of the field, averaging 10.9 points, five rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He also posts 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per contest.

One of my biggest concerns when it comes to matching up VCU with the Flyers is how reliant the Rams are on free throws. The Rams see 25.2% of their points come at the free throw line as they average 21.3 free throw attempts per game. Dayton, on the other hand, was one of the best players in limiting free throw attempts, giving up just 12.7 per game.

Outside of free throws, VCU has dramatically stepped up its three-point range in conference play. On the season, VCU has only hit 34.9% of its shots from deep, but in conference play, the Rams shoot 48.6% from beyond the arc.

Defensively, the Rams were solid all around but the rim and over the break. Unfortunately, not only did Dayton take the majority of their shots at the rim, but it’s also where the Flyers were at their best, shooting a 68.9% in team play.

The Flyers were the second best in the A10 when it came to offensive efficiency and best in effective field goal percentage.

However, they do not do everything perfectly. Dayton ranks second in the conference when it comes to turnover percentage, giving the ball 20.5% of its offensive possessions. The good news for the Flyers is that VCU has struggled to force substitutions and ranks 11th in the conference in defensive turnover ratio.

Much like VCU, the Flyers have been great when it comes to getting to the free throw line. Darron Holmes pulled 7.5 fouls per game in conference play and Tomani Kamara managed to tie the game at 4.5.

On the defensive end, Dayton was a much better team than the defensive glass, recovering 76.5% of chances. The one area Dayton lacked when it came to defending shots was against the middle range—an area where VCU not only takes the least amount of shots, but also shoots just 22.2% over its past five games.

VCU vs. the Dayton Betting Pick

I think VCU’s wins over the past eight games are largely due to a lack of competition. Not only was Dayton defeated at home, it defeated teams like SMU and Duquesne.

I also expect Dayton to continue its edge around the edge since the Flyers are the number one team in the country when it comes to average height. Reducing errors couldn’t be more important against the Rams, who see a quarter of their goals come on the goal line.

Dayton’s ability to be a top 20 defense, while also limiting errors, gives them the edge on offense. The Flyers returned to an 8-point favorite at home, going 7-4 ATS.

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